The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is a global strategic hub. After the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28th, the US side claimed that this round of military action may continue for a longer period of time, leading to the expansion of the scope of a new round of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Especially Iran's intentional "blockade" of the strait has caused panic in many aspects.

Analysis points out that the sudden tightening of the situation in the Middle East directly impacts global risk appetite, and in the short term, the market may present a safe haven pattern of "gold and oil rising together, risk assets under pressure". Gold, as a traditional safe haven asset, will attract large-scale inflows of funds; Short term or pulse like rise in oil prices. Risk assets such as stocks and emerging market currencies may experience a temporary correction due to rising risk aversion. How the situation in the Middle East will unfold in the future may become a key observation window in the coming week.

The major stock indexes in the United States and Europe are showing a downward trend. As of the close on March 3rd, the "panic index" VIX, which reflects the market's expectations for the volatility of the S&P 500 index, surged nearly 10%, and funds withdrew from the stock market on a large scale. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1200 points during trading. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.83%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.94%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.02%. In terms of sectors, all eleven major sectors of the S&P 500 index fell, led by the materials and industrial sectors. The three major stock indexes in Europe fell sharply across the board on that day. As of the close, the FTSE 100 index in the UK fell by 2.75%, the CAC40 index in France fell by 3.46%, and the DAX index in Germany fell by 3.44%. As of press time, the data shows a slight correction, but it cannot offset the downward trend.

International oil prices have risen by over 4%. The market is concerned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the impact on more energy infrastructure in the Middle East may lead to longer disruptions in crude oil supply, causing international oil prices to continue to rise. As of press time, the price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $77.86 per barrel, an increase of 4.31%; The London Brent crude oil futures price for May delivery closed at $84.50 per barrel, an increase of 3.85%.

European natural gas prices continue to rise. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz coupled with news of production stoppage continues to ferment, putting pressure on natural gas prices in Europe. As of the close on March 3rd, the April contract price of Dutch TTF natural gas futures, which serves as a benchmark for the European market, was 54.290 euros per megawatt hour, up 21.98%. As of press time, the data has slightly rebounded, but it is difficult to offset the downward trend. In addition, due to drone attacks on two energy facilities under Qatar Energy Company, the company announced the suspension of production of downstream natural gas products such as urea and methanol. Almost all of Qatar's liquefied natural gas is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for approximately 20% of the global supply share.

The international gold and silver prices have significantly declined. In terms of precious metals, silver prices fell by over 15% at one point, falling below the $80/ounce mark. As of press time, spot silver was reported at $76.17 per ounce, down 13.61%. Spot gold fell below $4800 per ounce. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has sharply escalated, and safe haven assets such as the US dollar have been highly sought after by investors, rising to a high point in over a month. The high energy prices have also pushed up inflation expectations, and investors believe that the possibility of major central banks around the world not cutting interest rates in the near future has increased, triggering more profit taking behavior. The aforementioned factors all contribute to the downward pressure on precious metal prices.

The Strait of Hormuz may not be completely closed for a long time, but the current tense situation may continue, bringing more uncertainty to global energy transportation and economic development. Under the influence of regional strategic games, commodity prices are expected to maintain high volatility. However, industry insiders also remind that despite the tense situation, investors still need to be vigilant about the risk of a pullback after emotional release and closely monitor the dynamic changes in the situation.