■ Thorough

In the just passed year of 2025, global trade has experienced rollercoaster-like ups and downs. Under the impact of equivalent tariffs, market expectations have been severely disrupted. Some companies are competing for imports to avoid future high tariffs, while others are busy adjusting their supply chains in the hope of obtaining more stable supply. Not only has the ability of small and medium-sized enterprises to participate in international economic cooperation been seriously affected, but large enterprises are also not immune. In the turbulent international market, China has become a rare safe haven in the global trade ocean, not only maintaining its own stability, but also creating important conditions for the development of trading partners. In 2025, China's total import and export value of goods trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and maintained growth for the ninth consecutive year. According to the Global Trade Update report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development on December 9, 2025, global trade is projected to be approximately $35 trillion by 2025. The average exchange rate of the US dollar to the Chinese yuan for the whole year of 2025 is 7.1429. According to this calculation, the global proportion of China's goods trade in 2025 is about 18.2%. That is to say, by 2025, 1 out of every 5 yuan worth of goods traded in the global market will be related to China, and the quality of China's foreign trade will directly affect the development trend of global trade.

China's exports and imports will both show remarkable performance in 2025, but their modes of action are not entirely the same. The total value of China's goods trade exports was 26.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. Mechanical and electrical products remain the main export commodities in China, while exports of high-tech products and "new three types" products increased by 13.2% and 27.1% respectively, highlighting the unique advantages of Chinese manufacturing. Mobile phones, lithium batteries, integrated circuits, automobiles, automotive parts, laptops, solar cells, general machinery and equipment, household appliances, and marine engineering are all frequent visitors to China's export rankings. The export of domestic brands increased by 12.9% compared to the previous year, and smart watches and smart toys sold well in more than 170 countries and regions. China's manufacturing industry, with its complete industrial chain and ultimate economies of scale, participates in global supply chain cooperation, helping upstream and downstream participants reduce costs, improve efficiency, accelerate innovation, and lead development. Taking "Apple" as an example, although the company has shifted some of its industrial chain to India, China remains an important supply chain ecosystem and target market. China's flexible and complete supply chain, as well as its ability to innovate and quickly debug complex processes, help consumer goods manufacturers, including Apple, maintain and enhance their product competitiveness, and better adapt to rapidly changing market demands.

As the world's factory, the goods produced in China are not just final consumer goods. A large amount of intermediate goods trade helps trading partners achieve their industrialization process. In recent years, developing the manufacturing industry has become a common goal for various economies. However, the development of manufacturing industry requires high infrastructure and supporting capabilities. If there is a lack of sufficient local market support, it is difficult to develop and produce product capabilities. Chinese made intermediate products can precisely meet the supporting requirements of industrialization in various countries. A stable and sufficient supply of intermediate goods helps trading partners reduce the supply chain impact caused by trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts in recent years, becoming an important guarantee for all parties to resist inflationary pressures and to a considerable extent reducing the economic growth space eroded by high inflation. Taking the booming global automotive industry in recent years as an example, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that from January to November 2025, China's cumulative exports of automotive components, including car chips, sensors, wiring harnesses, etc., will reach 86.59 billion US dollars, which has become one of the key supports for the development of the automotive industry in Europe, America, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. New energy vehicles are not only an update in transportation modes, but also an important entry point for the transformation and upgrading towards the digital economy. The new energy vehicles produced in China, with their high cost-effectiveness, innovative design, and continuously upgraded excellent quality, have filled the gap in market supply and accelerated the transformation of global energy consumption towards clean energy.

Compared with exports, imports are not only a source of attraction for China, but also create sustained and stable development space for all parties involved. The development opportunities contained in China's super large market will continue to strengthen in 2025. The annual import volume reached 18.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, maintaining its position as the world's second largest import market for 17 consecutive years. With the continuous reduction of tariffs and the continuous expansion and opening up of the market, the quantity and categories of imported goods in China have continued to increase, providing increasing export space for all parties and supporting the sustained development of the Chinese market and Chinese manufacturing. In 2025, China's imports from over 130 countries and regions around the world will increase, an increase of 7 compared to the previous year. China never seeks trade surplus, actively expands imports from trading partners, increases trade facilitation measures, and provides support and creates conditions for countries to export to China. In recent years, with the transformation and upgrading of China's domestic economy and industries, two obvious characteristics of Chinese demand have emerged. Firstly, the construction of the domestic large market is accelerating, and the scale of demand continues to expand, providing stronger support for importing more goods; The second is the further upgrading of demand, and differentiated demand drives the continuous enrichment of China's imported goods sources and categories, creating more opportunities for exports to China in various segmented fields.

In fact, the main force of China's foreign trade is enterprises, especially private enterprises with flexible decision-making and keen sensitivity. According to statistics, there will be over 780,000 business entities with import and export records in China by 2025. Among them, the import and export of private enterprises increased by 7.1% year-on-year, which is nearly 90% (86.8%) higher than the overall data in China, and its proportion in the total import and export value has also increased to 57.3%. It is the development space and potential of international trade that have attracted the active participation of Chinese private enterprises.

Looking ahead to 2026, China's foreign trade is expected to maintain strong growth momentum. As the global supply chain gradually reaches a new equilibrium under the pressure of equivalent tariffs, the unconventional trade fluctuations caused by supply chain restructuring and competition for imports and exports are gradually weakening, and trade based on trust relationships and the consensus of economic globalization will become more widespread. Chinese enterprises are actively embracing new technologies such as artificial intelligence and accelerating commercial applications with the support of open-source models, which will significantly improve the production efficiency and innovation speed of industrial products. As an important supply for consumption, imports are expected to maintain stable growth, while reducing the risk of dependence on a single market and promoting mutual learning among various products. At the beginning of the new year, China and Europe, as well as China and Canada, have reached important milestone consensus on regulatory measures related to electric vehicles, significantly strengthening the market's expectations for trade recovery in related fields. New formats and models, including service trade and digital trade, will also provide stronger support for China's goods trade and are expected to become a new engine for global economic development. (The author is a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce)