On December 23rd, international copper prices experienced a historic breakthrough. The main copper futures contract on the London Metal Exchange broke through the key level of $12000/ton for the first time during trading, reaching a high of $12159.5/ton, and closed at $12055/ton as of the day, maintaining a historical high. From the perspective of annual performance, the cumulative increase in international copper prices since the beginning of this year has exceeded 37%, which is expected to set the best annual increase record since 2010. This strong upward trend not only rewrote the historical peak of copper prices, but also triggered global market attention to the restructuring of copper supply and demand patterns. The copper price trend in 2026 has also become the focus of institutional analysis.

The core driving force behind the breakthrough of copper prices this time is the resonance of multiple favorable factors on both the supply and demand sides. The tightening trend on the supply side is particularly significant, with major global copper producers intensively lowering their production expectations this year, and the phenomenon of mining production cuts continues to spread. Deutsche Bank has defined 2025 as a "severely disrupted year" for the copper mining industry in a recent report, and further predicts that global copper production will shrink by about 300000 tons again in 2026, and the tight supply situation will continue to intensify.

In response to the tightening of the supply side, the structural growth of the demand side has provided support for copper prices. With the acceleration of the global energy transition process, the vigorous development of electrification transformation, power grid expansion and upgrading, and the large-scale construction of data centers driven by the explosion of artificial intelligence computing power, there is a strong and sustained demand for copper materials. Research data from BHP Group in Australia shows that by 2050, the amount of copper required for power lines in artificial intelligence data centers will increase six times the current amount, and the annual demand is expected to reach around 3 million tons. This series of demands constitutes the core logic driving the long-term upward trend of copper prices.

In addition to the fundamentals of supply and demand, changes in the macroeconomic environment have also contributed to the significant increase in international copper prices in recent times. Federal Reserve Governor Milan recently publicly stated that if the Fed fails to continue its interest rate cuts next year, the US economy will face increasingly severe recession risks. The market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut continues to rise, coupled with the weakening trend of the US dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of copper prices denominated in US dollars and further amplifies the upward momentum of copper prices.

For the follow-up trend, at the end of the year, many well-known financial institutions around the world have released intensive copper price outlook reports for 2026. Among the bullish camp, Citibank has the most aggressive attitude, predicting that copper prices will exceed $13000/ton in early 2026 and are expected to hit a new historical record of $15000/ton in the second quarter. The core logic includes the combination of multiple positive factors such as the implementation of US fiscal expansion policies, rigid demand brought about by energy transformation, and the risk of mining supply interruption. JPMorgan Chase also holds a bullish stance, expecting copper prices to reach $12500 per ton in the first half of 2026, while estimating a supply gap of approximately 330000 tons in the refined copper market for the entire year. UBS Group has set its copper price target for December 2026 at $13000 per ton and raised its global copper supply gap forecast to 407000 tons.

Against the backdrop of most institutions' bullish outlook, Goldman Sachs has given a relatively conservative outlook. Its viewpoint is that the true global supply shortage in the global copper market will not occur until 2029, so it is predicted that copper prices will show a range fluctuation trend in 2026, with a core operating range of $10000 to $11000 per ton.