On the 27th, President Trump of the United States and President von der Leyen of the European Commission held an informal meeting in Scotland, England. After the meeting, Trump said that the United States and Europe had reached a new trade agreement.

What does the new trade agreement consensus reached between the United States and Europe mean? What signals were released?

The new trade agreement indicates that the EU's trade policy autonomy is limited

Professor and economics expert Wan Zhe from Beijing Normal University: For the European Union, an increase in tariffs will definitely have an impact on its economy, and the EU's trade policy autonomy will actually be limited. It is actually more of a unilateral concession, possibly at the expense of the EU's own interests, which is not conducive to the development of local employment and industries in Europe.

Global trade costs rise, trade order is impacted

Professor and economics expert Wan Zhe from Beijing Normal University: In fact, it also has a broad and profound impact on the global economy. Firstly, the cost of global trade is bound to rise, as the cost of goods in the chain will increase, which will affect the speed of global economic growth. This agreement actually undermines the non discrimination principle of the WTO, which may lead to a return to the jungle era of global trade, further weakening the authority and effectiveness of the WTO in global trade governance, and exacerbating the fragmentation of global trade rules. The stability and resilience of the global supply chain may also be further affected. This agreement restricts transit trade through origin certification, standardization mechanisms, and other means, actually aiming to build an exclusive trade group, forcing many countries and economies to take sides. Of course, it will change the layout and flow of the global supply chain, and also make the supply chain more unstable.

The essence of the agreement is that the EU exchanges economic concessions for strategic breathing space

Professor and economics expert Wan Zhe from Beijing Normal University: For the pattern of the energy market, in addition to impacting Russia, it will also impact the market share of traditional energy exporting countries such as Qatar and Australia, reshaping the global energy market pattern. In the field of technology, the EU's investment commitments in the chip sector may compete head-on with the US Chip and Science Act, and in fact, the pattern of competition and cooperation will also undergo new changes. Overall, this may actually be a stop loss victory, essentially the EU exchanging economic concessions for strategic breathing space. Although it avoids an immediate crisis, it exposes the passive position of the EU in the US European game. The global economy seems to have temporarily stabilized, but the competition of high tariffs and industrial subsidies may become the new normal in the future, which will far push up costs.