Starting from the afternoon of May 12th, there have been inquiries from customers about booking shipping space. By May 13th, some shipping companies' US line cabin space has become tight and even overcrowded. From the current situation, sellers are rushing to replenish and ship, and cabin space has been scheduled until the end of May, approaching overcrowding. We predict that cargo volume will continue to rise and cabin space will become increasingly tight.

On May 15th, experts from international logistics service providers on the US Canada route made the above statement in an interview with news reporters.

The aforementioned experts further explained that since May 12th, the business team has received a 100% increase in inquiries, with general trade and cross-border e-commerce customers each accounting for a certain proportion. The main categories are furniture, fitness equipment, daily necessities, and chemicals. Due to the high proportion of cross-border e-commerce customers, who mainly focus on restocking and stocking, most of them have plans to enter overseas warehouses in the United States. The platform expects that by the end of June, with the arrival of goods departing in May, local overseas warehouses in the United States will also enter a state of tight supply.

Recently, several sea freight forwarders in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Qingdao told reporters from The Paper that the peak season for US exports will begin, usually concentrated from June to September. In addition, with the positive news of the tariff reduction, US shipping space is once again in high demand. It is expected that there will be a wave of intensive shipments in the next month, and freight forwarders are helping foreign trade manufacturers urgently seize space in the second half of the month.

It is worth noting that the shipowner has initiated an overtime ship plan.

On May 15th, global shipping giant Maersk Line China told The Paper that it is increasing its US shipping capacity and the number of bookings is also continuing to increase. A management team of a shipping company told The Paper that large and powerful shipping companies in the industry have stockpiled many ships and are now gradually investing in them. The small shipping company currently does not have the ability to transfer ships.

Experts on the US Canada route revealed on the 15th that they have received a notice that starting next week, some ship owners will increase the number of overtime ships on the US route. It is expected that within a month, including overtime ships and suspended routes, all will gradually resume. Shanghai freight forwarders also revealed to reporters on the 15th that they have received notices from some ship owners to coordinate and allocate plans for some ships that did not berth at Shanghai Port before.

However, the management of the aforementioned shipping company pointed out that the overall capacity of the US route may not be fully restored immediately. Firstly, it is not conducive to sustained price increases. Secondly, scheduling is needed, and there are risks to the overall capacity of the US route.

Previously, multiple freight forwarders pointed out that shipping companies have been gradually deploying US route capacity to other routes, and the scale of capacity deployment continues to be regulated. Currently, freight forwarders are also waiting for the resumption of US route capacity and cabin space deployment.

On April 15th, the shipping giant COSCO SHIPPING (601919. SH) stated in an investor exchange that the complex and changing tariff policies, coupled with the US imposing tariffs on multiple countries, have led to an increase in import costs for the US and an increase in wait-and-see sentiment among US customers. It is expected that this will affect the loading rate of ships on the trans Pacific route in the short term. In the medium to long term, there is still significant uncertainty regarding the impact of relevant events on the industry. The company will maintain a high level of attention, closely monitor, actively respond, and make timely adjustments.

However, industry insiders emphasize that there is a lag in the adjustment of shipping capacity. Industry insiders close to shipping companies have told reporters that adjusting shipping capacity requires a process. For example, suppose a ship is in another area and needs to deliver all the cargo on board or hand it over to another ship in order for this line to be empty. If a ship is in a resting state, it takes time to call back the crew and prepare for the operation of this route. Usually, transportation on the US West Coast route takes about 20 days.

The tight cabin space directly drives up the freight rates on the US route.

A freight forwarder stated on May 12th that as soon as the news of tariff reduction came out, the cabin space of the US line exploded in the second half of the month, and the price was pushed up due to the upcoming adjustment. The freight rate continued to rise on the afternoon of the 13th.

On May 15th, another freight forwarder pointed out that the quotes they received showed that the sea freight prices from Shanghai Port to the West and East of the United States in June had increased by a minimum of $1000 per 40 foot standard container. The increase in freight rates for 20 foot containers is around $400 to $500.

Another freight forwarder pointed out that the quotation they received showed that by the end of May, the US West freight rate for a 40 foot standard container would be between $3000 and $3500, which has increased by more than 60% to double compared to before; By the end of May, the freight rates on the US East Coast will be between $3800 and $4700, an increase of over 30% compared to before. It is expected that the overall freight rates on the US West Coast in June will double.

Experts on the US Canada route said on the 15th that the US route freight rates are expected to continue to rise by $1000 to $2000 or even more in June. When the supply and demand of transportation capacity are completely balanced, freight rates may slow down and rise.

Many industry insiders have pointed out that the shipment volume of foreign trade manufacturers has stagnated in the past month, and choosing to re ship will inevitably lead to a shortage of space on the US route, which will also drive up prices. However, in recent years, sea freight prices have not become an important factor affecting export enterprises. Many foreign trade manufacturers choose FOB terms (freight borne by foreign customers) for quotation, and any increase in sea freight prices will be negotiated between the final consignee and the freight agent in their region.

According to an analysis released by Shenyin Wanguo Futures on May 15th, since the joint statement of the high-level economic and trade officials of China and the United States on May 12th, both sides have agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, and the trade friction between China and the United States has eased in stages, leading to a return of US line cargo volume and the phenomenon of export competition. US line freight rates have begun to rise, which may drive the early start of the US line peak season. For the European route, the previously overflowed capacity from the US route will return, and there may be a possibility of European route capacity being transferred to the US route. The opening of the peak season on the US route may bring about the synchronous opening of the peak season on the European route and an increase in freight rates, as well as the supply chain disruption caused by possible port congestion on the US route. These are also the main reasons for the recent significant rebound in the market.